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2024-12-14 01:48:14

Ye Fan, Southwest Securities: In 2025, the upward trend of domestic economy will continue, and it is estimated that the annual RRR will be lowered by about 100bp. The Central Economic Work Conference will be held in Beijing from December 11th to 12th. Ye Fan, chief economist of Southwest Securities, said that in 2025, the domestic economy will continue to stabilize and upward under the policy. From the structural point of view, infrastructure and manufacturing investment are expected to remain the main support items for domestic investment next year, and the decline in real estate investment will gradually narrow; Domestic demand is expected to play a stronger role in stimulating the economy than external demand, and domestic residents' consumption is expected to continue to pick up under the policy. Regarding the direction of fiscal and monetary policies, Ye Fan predicted that the issuance scale of ultra-long-term special government bonds will be around 1.5 trillion -2 trillion yuan in 2025, and it will continue to support the "dual" areas. In the first half of next year or the peak of government bond issuance, there may be a RRR cut for hedging. It is estimated that the RRR cut will be about 100bp for the whole year, and the interest rate cut will be decided by camera. The interest rate cut of 25bp-40bp may be promoted step by step.Pakistan KSE-100 index opened up 0.3% to 114,767.90.The winning bid rate of China's 2-year treasury bonds was 1.06%, which was 31 basis points lower than last month. The Ministry of Finance of China issued treasury bonds today, and the weighted average winning bid rate of 2-year varieties was 1.06%. The data shows that the bid-winning interest rate is about 31 basis points lower than that when the national debt of the same term was issued in November, the lowest since Bloomberg recorded it in 2004.


Guangdong has issued a batch of personnel appointments and dismissals. According to the news of WeChat official account, the Guangdong Provincial People's Government has appointed and dismissed staff. Appoint Guan Jin as the deputy director of the General Office of Guangdong Provincial People's Government for a trial period of one year; Appointed Chen Yongkang as Deputy Director of the Guangdong Provincial Department of Justice; Zhang Hezhi was appointed as the deputy director of the Development Research Center of Guangdong Provincial People's Government; Appointed Ke Mofu as Deputy Director of the Local Records Office of Guangdong Provincial People's Government; Liu Huilin was appointed as the deputy director of the Development Research Center of Guangdong Provincial People's Government for a trial period of one year. Li Mingliang was removed from the post of chairman of Guangdong Inspection and Certification Institute Group Co., Ltd.; Jin Ping was removed from the post of deputy director of the Guangdong Provincial Ethnic and Religious Affairs Committee and retired; Lai Haibin was removed from the post of director (deputy department level) of Guangdong Ecological Environmental Protection Supervision Office and retired; Jiao Fangtai was removed from the post of vice president of Guangdong University of Foreign Studies and retired; Chen Tinggen was removed from the post of vice president of Wuyi University and retired; Wu Qifeng was removed from the post of Dean of Guangdong Songshan Vocational and Technical College and retired; Jasmine Zhang was removed from the post of president of Maoming Vocational and Technical College and retired; Tan Xuerui was removed from the post of Dean of Shantou University School of Medicine and retired.Zhongke Chuangda: Cooperation with Bean Bag will promote the transformation and application of the scientific research results of the big model on the vehicle side and intelligent hardware side with Volcano Engine. Zhongke Chuangda said on the interactive platform on December 13th that it has cooperation with Bean Bag. The company reached an in-depth cooperation with Volcano Engine to build a joint laboratory to empower end-to-end intelligence. The two sides will give full play to the advantages of core technologies, products and markets in their respective fields, and work together to promote the transformation and application of scientific research results of large models on the vehicle side and intelligent hardware side, empowering industrial innovation and development.EDI SUSIANTO, Executive Director of the Bank of Indonesia: The decline of the Indonesian rupiah was affected by global sentiment and the rise of the US dollar.


Huatai Securities: The countercyclical adjustment is stronger than expected, and the expansion of domestic demand may fall on the policy of boosting consumption. Huatai Securities believes that the macro-policy orientation conveyed by the Central Economic Work Conference is more positive, in fiscal policy (expanding deficit, increasing special national debt, expanding the use scope of special debt, etc.), monetary policy (moderately easing, timely lowering the RRR and cutting interest rates), real estate and capital market (stabilizing the property market and stock market), and expanding domestic demand policy (implementing special actions to boost consumption) In terms of currency securities, Huatai Securities believes that there is still room for interest rate cuts. On the one hand, the current real interest rate level is still high in horizontal comparison; On the other hand, credit expansion, especially the balance sheet expansion of developers and local governments, is relatively weak, and the cost of capital has room for further decline. It is expected that the central bank will cut interest rates by 30-50 basis points next year, but the pace may be affected by external changes and exchange rates.Zhongke Chuangda: Cooperation with Bean Bag will promote the transformation and application of the scientific research results of the big model on the vehicle side and intelligent hardware side with Volcano Engine. Zhongke Chuangda said on the interactive platform on December 13th that it has cooperation with Bean Bag. The company reached an in-depth cooperation with Volcano Engine to build a joint laboratory to empower end-to-end intelligence. The two sides will give full play to the advantages of core technologies, products and markets in their respective fields, and work together to promote the transformation and application of scientific research results of large models on the vehicle side and intelligent hardware side, empowering industrial innovation and development.According to sources, Keppel and Sovico Group are discussing submarine cables between Singapore and Vietnam.

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